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Literature Review

Fiji’s Experience with Epidemic

If you visit Google Trends and take a look at the data surrounding searches related to COVID-19, it is quite apparent that this epidemic is on the forefront of our nation’s mind. Type the letter “c” in the Google search bar. What is the first recommended search? There is a very good chance that the answer is something related to coronavirus or COVID-19. This is a perfect example of how present the threat of pandemic is. The last nationwide pandemic concern in the U.S. was due to the measles in the 1980’s. The situation in a country such as Fiji is much different. The last pandemic they have experienced was due to the flu in 2009. Fiji has had more than its fair share of epidemics in the past century. While this “social distancing” concept may be new to those in the U.S., Fijians are quite familiar with the concept. From a measles outbreak to a dengue-fever outbreak, they have seen it all. On top of this, they also must conquer the various floods and typhoons that wreak havoc on their society as well as economy. Chances are that Fiji has been better prepared for this COVID-19 outbreak, since they have had much more practice with epidemics. Due to their history, the Repbulic of Fiji has enacted many effective procedures to control epidemic on their island. One example is the use of technology for rapid communication. In the future, neural networks will play a role in this, as well as identifying patterns with epidemics. However, this technology will not change the fact that Fiji is in a very disaster-prone geographical location. On top of this, their society and economy are quite vulnerable to disaster, since they heavily rely on agriculture and tourism to fuel their economy. Also, the U.S. definitely has a leg up on Fiji when it comes to technology. We have begun to properly utilize quantum computing and neural networks. These technologies can work wonders when applied, especially concerning the analysis of big data, which can be very useful for combatting epidemis.

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) is a global development issue. Without the means to be sustainable surrounded by disaster, society would collapse. The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, or the UNDRR “brings governments, partners and communities together [to] reduce disaster risk and losses to ensure a safer, sustainable future.” They aim to tackle the global issue of disaster. They study past epidemics to learn from, and publish a multitude of graphics to provide epidemic information to the public. One region that tends to hold their focus is the Asian/Pacific region, which includes the Republic of Fiji. When Fiji suffered from the measles and dengue-fever epidemics, the UNDRR’s response was swift and provided results. For example, they helped Fiji to disperse vaccinations nationwide, and eventually reduced the measles mortality rate in Fiji by 99% (Rubella Initiative). One article by the UNDRR about Fiji outlines the semi-recent protocol for informing the public about epidemics. Fiji was even categorized as low risk when it comes to the “inform risk index”, which describes the country’s ability to quickly respond to disaster by informing the public (UNDRR). This is a prime example of human development: Fiji has developed by creating communcation methods effectively reducing the threat of epidemic. Think about your current situation. If you did not have access to information about the COVID outbreak, would you still be social distancing? Would you be more anxious? The freedom of knowledge is a necessity, especially to fight disasters such as epidemics. Now consider a tsunami is miraculously paving a road of destruction to William and Mary. That freedom to communication and knowledge may save your life.

Pre-UNDRR intervention in Fiji, outbreaks of measles and dengue fever brought Fijian society to its knees. One article about the measles outbreak begins with “In 1875 Fijians buried one-third of their population – all dead as a result of measles,” (Rubella Initiative). It took until 1982 for the measles vaccine to reach Fiji. Before that time, Fijian society struggled to develop as the measles hindered every path of development. Their tourism industry was basically non-existent, so they heavily relied on the agricultural sector. Similarly, the dengue fever epidemic also lead to this societal breakdown. The source of the problem with these two epidemics is how widely they affected working-age males. Without a healthy workforce, the majority of work came to a standstill. Without income or healthy workers, the poverty line become much more populated, with families struggling to make ends meet and the government struggling to remain operational. Another factor that made recovery from epidemic a difficult goal was the urbanization of Fiji. As seen today with COVID-19, densely populated regions are susceptible to the rapid spread of a virus. As of the moment this is written, New York has about 37,000 more cases than any other state. Other than population density, other characteristics, such as geographical location, must be considered when discussing epidemics. For example, the severity of the dengue fever epidemic in Fiji is largely due to its location in the Pacific. The region is much more susceptible to vector-borne illnesses. For instance, the mosquitoes in Fiji are rampant, which may explain the rapid transmission. Fiji’s reponse to the dangerous nature of its location has been to publish a guide by the name “Key Messages for Disaster Risk Reduction And Resilience in Fiji: A Guide For Public Education & Awareness” on how one should prepare for disaster, how one should react to disaster, and what they should expect from disaster. Under the pandemic section of this guide, point 3.3 orders isolation from society. It also illustrates how the government will react, specifically how they will handle travel restrictions and the dispersal of information to the public. It is likely that Fiji will need to update and republish said guide. This complex, global problem is continuously evolving. However, here is the silver lining: so are we.

One of the main challenges with epidemics is incorporating the large amounts of data collected about a certain disease. How can we apply this data to be helpful to the nation? What are these numbers really telling us? Another problem is the amount of data, which is difficult to comb through and analyze with human eyes. The solution? Make a computer do it. This is one example of our technological evolution. With the use of neural networks and quatum computing, big data can be analyzed by a neural network designed to discover and report patterns. Quantum computing can be used to perform calculations on millions of gigabytes of data, which in turn can be used to develop more complex neural networks faster. This new technology can solve problems that we cannot. One article states “Quantum computing allows for quick detection, analysis, integration, and diagnosis from large scattered data sets. Quantum computers can search extensive, unsorted data sets to quickly uncover patterns. This powerful technology can also view all items in a massive database at the same time to uncover potentially important patterns,” (Moné 1). One study specifically focuses on applying these technologies to disaster response. It is “aiming at introducing the power of deep learning algorithms as the advanced computer vision approaches, to have a (near) real time disaster detection system based on UAVs data which can be effectively used in emergency response and disaster management applications” (Alidoost 12). The development of disaster reaction is becoming far more complex as our technology develops. As society as a whole develops, there the world population grows and disasters become even more lethal. Therefore, the development of our response to disasters must also grow and develop. As the population grows, so do the stakes. The more lives that are at stake, the more complex, accurate, and efficient our solutions must be. These solutions can be discovered through the use of these two newer technologies: quantum computing and neural networks.

Though we are evolving along with the problem of disaster preparedness, there are gaps in our evolution process. For example, these technologies that were mentioned can be used in a variety of ways to help with epidemics. The term “functional-fixedness” refers to the cognitive bias that limits a person to use an object only in the way it is traditionally used. One way that we have conquered this bias is seen in how one doctor successfully treated a COVID-19 patient using an antiserum initially synthesized for ebola. This is the type of problem-solving skills we need: thinking outside of the box. This idea hand-in-hand with quantum computing and neural networks could lead to successful treatment of patients using drugs intended for other uses. The technology can derive connections and solutions that we simply cannot see with the human eye, especially when it comes to large quantities of data. There is a plethora of drugs in the market that have unintended side effects that may be useful for treating certain diseases. We need more research into this application, as it may save many lives. There is also much to be explored with the application of these technologies to geospatial data science methods. “Regarding Big Data, quantum computing will enable organizations to sample large troves of data and optimize for all types of use cases and portfolio analyses,” (Moné 1), says one data scientist. In this case, the big data is the pool of geospatial data available to us. The main application here is to find these undiscovered patterns.

At the root of this human development problem of disaster preparedness is what matters most: human lives at stake. Another harm of this problem is the threat to economies and societies. Fiji knows this problem all-too-well, as they have faced these threats and have developed means to negate them. This is also a very current harm as well: the U.S.’s economy has undoubtedly taken quite a hit from COVID-19. Many countries, including the U.S., have even implemented economy-stimulating packages, by giving money unemployed citizens. One final harm of this problem is how present it is. This COVID outbreak is only the first; the government expects more to come, even considering the fall a possibility to be our next wave of cases. These diseases are able to spread horrifyingly fast. They can spread to all corners of the globe in days, thanks to our modes of travel. Disaster preparedness is inherently global, and there must be a strong global presence to combat it. One example of this is the World Heath Organization (WHO). We also must learn from past experiences. Writer and philosopher George Santayan once prophesized “Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.” Fiji has done a beatiful job with this, by learning from past epidemics, such as the measles or dengue fever outbreaks. Amartya Sen would describe this process as Fiji developing its freedoms, specifically the freedom to information (means of communcation) as well as simply the freedom to live, disease-free. In reality, the fact that Fiji is very disaster-prone has lead to these developments. The country has essentially been forced to prepare and prevent disaster, as much as possible. Otherwise, they can lead to collapse of the tourism industry, which in turn can drastically bring down their economy, which then leads to societal break downs. Though Fiji cannot change the fact that they are in a disaster-prone geographical location, they can study the patterns and develop plans to refute large damages. However, there is one question left unanswered: how successful will these plans be at isolating COVID-19 and adequately responding to its effects, both economical and societal? We have studied the early and present stages of disaster response (specifically epidemic response) in Fiji, though, what will the future stages look like? Will they include a heavier reliance on technologies such as quantum computing and neural networks? Similar to how they did with the measles and dengue fever outbreaks, what lessons will Fiji learn from this COVID outbreak? The sheer complexity of this problem requires questions like these to be asked. In the end, the most important question is: “are we prepared for the next deadly outbreak?”

Sources:

ADRC. “Characteristics of Disasters in Oceania.” ADRC Asia, 2002, Characteristics of Disasters in Oceania

UNDRR, ADPC. “Disaster Risk Reduction in the Republic of Fiji.” UNDRR, July 2019, Disaster Risk Reduction in the Republic of Fiji

Save the Children’s Resource Centre. “Key Messages for Disaster Risk Reduction And Resilience in Fiji: A Guide For Public Education & Awareness.” UNISDR, Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protections, 2016 https://resourcecentre.savethechildren.net/node/12396/pdf/key-messages_booklet_drr_fiji_2016.pdf Key Messages for Disaster Risk Reduction And Resilience in Fiji: A Guide For Public Education & Awareness

Rubella Initiative. “Fiji and Measles: from Devastation to Elimination.” Measles & Rubella Initiative, American Red Cross, 16 Jan. 2017, measlesrubellainitiative.org/fiji-and-measles-from-devastation-to-elimination/.Fiji and Measles: from Devastation to Elimination

Getahun, Aneley, et al. “Dengue in Fiji: Epidemiology of the 2014 DENV-3 Outbreak.” World Health Organization, World Health Organization, Apr. 2019, ojs.wpro.who.int/ojs/index.php/wpsar/article/view/652/921. Dengue in Fiji: Epidemiology of the 2014 DENV-3 Outbreak

Alidoost, Fatemeh & Arefi, Hossein. (2018). Application of Deep Learning for Emergency Response and Disaster Management. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323187472_Application_of_Deep_Learning_for_Emergency_Response_and_Disaster_Management

UNDRR. “UNDRR Home.” UNDRR, 2020, www.undrr.org/.

Kommenda, Niko, et al. “Coronavirus Map of the US: Latest Cases State by State.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 2020, www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/mar/27/coronavirus-map-of-the-us-latest-cases-state-by-state.

Moné, Lesa. “The Era of Quantum Computing and Big Data Analytics.” Enterprise Architecture Management, LeanIX GmbH, 18 Jan. 2019, www.leanix.net/en/blog/quantum-computing-and-big-data-analytics.

Routh, Jennifer. “NIH Clinical Trial of Remdesivir to Treat COVID-19 Begins.” National Institutes of Health, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 25 Feb. 2020, www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-remdesivir-treat-covid-19-begins.

Outline:

Problem Statement:

Fiji has a harsh history when it comes to natural disasters, specifically epidemics, which have had significant impacts on Fiji’s economy and society as a whole. Fiji is in a very fragile social and economic state that epidemics can easily disrupt, and it would not be the first time. Epidemics have had far-reaching effects on Fiji, including social breakdown and economic conflicts. Disaster preparedness is such a complex problem in this country due to many factors, including Fiji’s geographical location as well as Fiji’s dependence on its tourism industry. Fiji is constantly getting crippled by natural disasters, and is barely given time to recover from one before the next disaster is on the horizon.

ADRC. “Characteristics of Disasters in Oceania.” ADRC Asia, 2002,
1. Fiji faces a sleuth of natural disasters due to its location in Oceania, and the article states “It can be concluded that in 2002, Oceania experienced both hydro meteorological and geophysical disasters, almost in equal dimensions, due to the geological location of the region,” (ADRC 1). This article also displays the huge impacts of some major disasters, such as epidemics, which tend to have wide-reaching effects on Fiji. Epidemics are one of Fiji’s most severe threats.
UNDRR, ADPC. “Disaster Risk Reduction in the Republic of Fiji.” UNDRR, July 2019,
1. The UNDRR essentially outlines the progress of disaster-preparedness, the challenges, their recommendations, and their goals for the Republic of Fiji in this report. However, the UNDRR unnecessarily focuses on climate change. Though it is an urgent problem, Fiji should be focused on combatting the disasters that are most threating to their society: epidemics. Also, the article outlines how the socio-economic effects of disaster on Fiji are extensive and rippling.
Save the Children’s Resource Centre. “Key Messages for Disaster Risk Reduction And Resilience in Fiji: A Guide For Public Education & Awareness.” UNISDR, Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protections, 2016,
1. This source outlines how one should prepare for disaster, how one should react to disaster, and what they should expect from disaster. In the pandemic section, the UNISDR does a great job at keeping in contact with civilians, in order to update the public and to “flatten the curve.” Though this report was published in 2016, in the past 4 years, the Republic of Fiji has increased their efforts to prevent and isolate any viral epidemics. For example, their immediate response to the COVID-19 was to create heavy travel restrictions.
Rubella Initiative. “Fiji and Measles: from Devastation to Elimination.” Measles & Rubella Initiative, American Red Cross, 16 Jan. 2017,
1. This article outlines Fiji’s history surrounding their measles epidemics. According to the article, they have had success reducing deaths due to measles by 99% today, due to a heavy push of vaccinations nationally. One doctor stated “In the 1870s, modern travel could allow a virus to go half way around the world, from port to port, in three years. Today a virus can circle the globe in a day,”(Rubella Initiative). This points to the danger of epidemic today, and we have all seen firsthand how quickly a virus can spread globally with the COVID-19.
*Getahun, Aneley, et al. “Dengue in Fiji: Epidemiology of the 2014 DENV-3 Outbreak.” *World Health Organization, World Health Organization, Apr. 2019, **
1. This article delves into the dengue virus serotype-3 outbreak in 2013-2014, and provides data surrounding this topic. One of the main reasons dengue fever was such a problem is Fiji’s location. The region is much more susceptible to vector-borne illnesses. For instance, the mosquitoes in Fiji are rampant. Between the emergency notification system and travel restrictions, the goverment is able to quickly and efficiently respond to the threat of an outbreak (which they have for the 2019-nCoV).
Geographical location
1. Fiji’s location is one of the main reasons that this country is so disaster-prone. From flooding to epidemics, this region experiences the whole spectrum of disasters. The government has recognized this, and has responded adequately with many preventative measures, as well as outlining disaster-plans for each disaster for the public. They have come to realize the importance of utilizing modern day communication means, and have implemented them into their disaster plans. Today’s technology makes communication rapid, which allows for quick response times, which is important in a world where a virus can spread globally at terrifying rates. The UNDRR classified Fiji as the 20th most vulnerable country to weather-related disaster. However, their informability risk has been labelled as low risk, due to Fiji’s recently upgraded disaster response protocol.
Societal and cultural pitfalls
1. Many disasters in Fiji can easily lead to social breakdown. Epidemics cause social distancing and isolation, which leads to the working men not being able to perform their job and get paid. This results in an almost economic standstill. One horrifying statistic that is included in one article is that about 50% of farming families are expected to fall below the poverty line after a disaster. These disasters also tend to disrupt the agricultural industry, which produces about 11.7% of Fiji’s GDP
Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Globally
1. The office of the UNDRR was created to “bring governments, partners and communities together [to] reduce disaster risk and losses to ensure a safer, sustainable future.” On the front page of their website, the UNDRR also states “disasters displace more people than conflict and violence,” which is intended to raise some eyebrows. Today, their website is littered with articles about the COVID-19 spread. The UNDRR has its own concentration on the Pacific region, which includes Fiji.
Neural Networks
1. One data science method that may become very handy for dealing with epidemics is the use of AI and neural networks. By training a neural network to locate patterns in disasters and disaster reaction, we can more effectively and efficiently conquer said disaster.